BCREA ECONOMICS NOW


Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - January 9, 2018


The Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the outlook for the Canadian economy is moderating due to  falling oil prices and mandatory production cuts in Alberta and a slowdown in global demand due to US-China trade tensions. As a result, the Bank has trimmed its forecast for Canadian economic growth in 2019 from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent. 


Total inflation is being dragged lower by falling gasoline prices, though core inflation remains near the Bank's 2 per cent target.

While the direction of future monetary policy remains tilted toward higher interest rates, our baseline forecast is for a single rate hike as the most likely outcome for 2019.


With a housing market battered by the stress test and signs of slowing growth elsewhere in the economy, it will be difficult for the Bank to accelerate monetary tightening beyond a gradual pace. 


A less hawkish Bank of Canada, along with a steep fall in Canadian bond yields, should translate to mortgage rates flattening out or even moving slightly lower in 2019.

 

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Courtesy BCREA - October 4, 2018


Total Canadian employment increased by 62,000 jobs in September, reversing the similar sized decline from August. Part-time employment accounted for most of the gain, rising by 80,000 while full-time work declined.   The national unemployment rate declined 0.1 points to 5.9 per cent and total hours worked across the economy rose 0.6 per cent.  Total employment was up 1.2 per cent over this time last year.
 
In BC, employment rose for a third consecutive month as the economy added an astonishing 33,000 jobs in September (near the all-time record of 34,700 set in May 2015), including 26,000 full-time jobs. Employment in the third quarter was up 54,000 jobs after declining in the first half of the year.  On a year-over-year basis, employment was up 1.7 per cent and the provincial unemployment rate fell 1.1 points to 4.2 per cent, the lowest rate of unemployment in the province since June 2008.

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Vancouver, BC – June 7, 2018.


The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) declined for the first time in three years, falling 1.5 points in the first quarter of 2018 to an index level of 134.2. That decrease represents a 1.1 per cent dip over the fourth quarter of 2017. The index is still 3.4 per cent higher than this time one year ago.

“The BC economy appears to be slowing following four years of remarkable growth,” says BCREA Deputy Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “That slowdown likely means a slight drop-off in commercial real estate activity on the horizon.”


The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, remains positive, reflecting several quarters of strong economic activity and employment growth. A still moderately rising trend signals continued, albeit slower, growth in commercial real estate activity.


To view the full BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator index, click here

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BCREA ECONOMICS NOW


Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - May 30, 2018

The Bank of Canada decided to leave the target for the overnight policy rate unchanged at 1.25 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation has been close to its two per cent target and will likely be higher in the near term than was previously forecast due to higher gasoline prices. Economic growth in the first quarter was stronger than expected due to rising exports and business investment, which helped to offset a B20 induced softening in housing activity.  Overall, the Bank's view is that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near its target.
   
Although the Bank held steady today, with inflation rising to the Bank's two per cent target and the Canadian economy operating at or near capacity, interest rates are very likely headed higher,  perhaps at the Bank's next meeting in July.  That will translate to higher mortgage rates which, combined with the erosion of purchasing power from the mortgage stress test, will continue to temper housing demand in 2018.

For more information, please contact: 

Cameron Muir

Brendon Ogmundson

Chief Economist

Deputy Chief Economist

Direct: 604.742.2780

Direct: 604.742.2796

Mobile: 778.229.1884

Mobile: 604.505.6793

Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca

Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca



The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.


Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

 

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TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 12,906 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, up 14.3 per cent from the same month last year.Total sales dollar volume was $8.97 billion in June, up 25.7 per cent compared to the previous year.


The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 10 per cent year-over-year, to $694,925.

“Robust housing demand in the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island and the Okanagan drove sales growth in June,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “At the same time, the inventory of homes for sale continues to slide lower, creating very tight market conditions around the province.“


“The supply of resale homes is remarkably low across BC, but particularly so in Victoria and the Fraser Valley,” added Ogmundson. The sales-to-active listings ratio has eclipsed 60 per cent in both Victoria and the Fraser Valley, corresponding to less than two months of supply given current demand.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 53.2 per cent to $49.9 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 30.6 per cent to 67,361 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 17.3 per cent to $741,150.

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The BC Government, as of May 15, 2016 will require contracts of purchase and sale for BC real estate to include a clause stating that the contract cannot be assigned without the written consent of the seller,and that any profit from an assignment goes to the initial seller. Sellers can instruct their Realtor to omit or change the clause.

BCREA President Deanna Horn says "like many other provisions in the contract, buyers and sellers have the option of keeping the new paragraph, changing it or striking it out completely".

The following cluase will now be a part of the Contract of Purchase and Sale:-

"The seller and the buyer agree that this contract: (a) must not be assigned without the written consent of the Seller and (b) the Seller is entitled to any profit resulting from an assignment of the Contract by the Buyer or any subsequent assignee.

"Assignment" is the practice of someone assigning their rights in a contract to someone else before the transaction completes. In smple terms, someone can buy the right to step into the original buyer's shoes to complete the contract. 

Assigning one's right to a contract is a legitmate practice, allowed by common law and also by section 36 of the Law and Equity Act.


Also, starting in Jne 2016 the provincial government will begin collecting citizenship data of real estate owners through the Property Transfer Tax form.

 

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Concord Pacific's new ARC development at the foot of Cambie Street bridtge will be the first in North America of its scale to be 100% EV ready. The development will also be the first in the city to have both a tuchless and manual carwash for the exvlusive use of its residents.

Soon after Concord announced their EV parking commitment, the city of Vancouver adopted the policy for all future condo buildings, due to the advancements in electric vehicle technology and demand in Vancouver.

The EV plugs in Concord's ARC building will all have a 210 volt capacity, allowing for quicker charging capabilities - up to 50 kilometres worth of charge in an hour

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Ever wondered how Canada ranks amongst other countries in the world?

-Canada ranked 13th out of 144 economies in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index, 2015-16

• Ranked fourth in the Human Capital Index, 2015

• Vancouver (3), Toronto (4) and Calgary (5) were all in the top five most liveable cities, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Liveability Ranking, 2015

• Canada ranked as the world’s ninth least-corrupt country on the Corruption Perceptions Index, 2015

• Ranked as the 12th most innovative country on the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which assesses countries based on R&D, manufacturing, technology, education and patents

• Ranked seventh on Forbes’ Best Countries for Business list, 2015.

No wonder international money is flowing into our real estate markets!


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Premier Christy Clark announced this morning that her government will create “new rules” within existing legislation to address assignment agreements. 

These rules will require informed consent from the original seller, and for the profits from assignments to revert to the original seller. 

These rules are under development and not yet in force. The government will rely on the findings that come from the Real Estate Council’s Independent Advisory Group. This group will provide an interim report in April.

Read the government’s release here

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February saw BC housing starts hit a record high at 5,780 units SAAR. The record setting pace of new construction was a result of new home and apartment construction which were up 183% year over year.

Housing starts in Metro Vancouver were up 199% year over year in February 2016.

Where else set housing start records in February? Victoria, Kelowna and Abbotsford/Mission.

Strong net migration into BC is creating a demand for housing.

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This is the first time in the last ten years that I've seen Vancouver's West Side house prices be lower in February than in January. Very unusual for Chinese New Year as there is always a surge in real estate sales as they go shoppping.

Are prices topping, given the 32% increase in the last year? Definitely over the top!

In December 2012 the average sales price was $2M, so it has nearly doubled in only three years....definitely not normal.

In January 2015 the price was $2.7M and a year later it's $3.7M.

Average sale price dipped from $3.805.000 in January to $3.728.000 in February.

However, one month does not a treand make! We shall have to see what happens in March.

View the graph


3/16






 

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What happens when a strata building is at the end of its life cycle, or owners want to sell the building for redevelopment? Currently, all eligible voters must approve.

Did you know that the strata property legislation in BC dates back to 1966? Currently about 20% of British Columbians - about one million people = live in some form of a strata property?

The BC Government are updating this legislantion, proposing to lower the threshold to 80%.

If a strata corporation has more than five lots, then court confirmation will be required, thereby helping to protect the rights of dissenting owners. 

The BC Law Institute is reviewing the following areas of strata property law:

  • fundamental changes to a strata - including winding up
  • leasehold stratas
  • common property
  • complex - mixed use - stratas
  • selected insurance issues - competing interests and options
  • selected governance issues - including protection of minority interests and the accountability of strata councils
  • selected land-title issues
I will have further updates once the above Amendments have been passed.
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Cenral One Credit Union predict BC's GDP at market prices to be 3.8% this year and 5.2% in 2017!! The unemployment rate will be 6.3% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017.They do not predict any change to interest rates this year.

The Conference Board of Canada is predicting the Canadian economy will be sluggish this year but it will not go into recession and oil will remain below $50 per barrel until the end of 2017. Large cuts in the energy sector will result in third consecutive year of decline in  business investment.

Real consumer spending will risse only l.9% this year as Canadians are faced with continued week employment, disposable income gains and record high debt levels.

On the bright side, the low Canadian dollar is expected to boost exports and the new Federal Government will boost spending in the public sector as they spend money from 2016-2018 on infrastructure.


Thinking of making a move? Put my hyper-local experience to work for you!

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Vancouver's luxury condo market nails it in 2015 with a record number of sales over $5M

  • 2015 - 18
  • 2014 - 12
  • 2013 - 6
  • 2012 - 4
  • 2011 - 13
  • 2010 - 7

What about Vancouver condo sales over $7M?
  • In 2015 there were 5
  • in 2014 there were 2
  • 2013 - 4
  • 2012 - 2
  • 2011 - 4
  • 2010 - 2
  • 2005 & 2006 - 2 each
  • there were no sales over $7M between 2007 and 2009
The most expensive sale in 2015 was at Vancouver House ($8.8M for 3,252sf). The penthouse was divided into a number of smaller penthouses.
Currently there are 9 listings over $7M , which is two years of inventory.
The most expensive is the Penthouse at Two Harbour Green (1139 W. Cordova), listed at $19,800,000 for 6,000sf.
In 2015, the average days on the market for condos selling over $7M was onl 47 and they all sold between July and October.

Buying or Selling your luxury Vancouver condo? You deserve to know it all! Put my decades of hyper-local experience to work for you! Call Maggie today 604-328-0077!
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Are you planning to buy a one or two bedroom condo and wondering whether Vancouver West Side or East Side is the best bet? Here's some graphs for the two neighbourhoods.

 

One Bedroom Condos

Average sale price

Sales 

Listings 

Days on market

Percentage of original price

 

Two Bedroom Condos

Average Sale Price

Sales

Listings

Days on market

Percentage of original price


How can I help you find the right home? Put my decades of hyper-local experience to work for you! Call or text Maggie 604-328-0077 for a coffee meetup!

 

 

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There is perhaps no other Vancouver hotel that is as iconic as Coal Harbour's Westin Bayshore, which sits on the waterfront with astounding views. Built in the 1960s Starwood Capital and investors from the Middle East bought the hotel in 2013 for $151M and just sold it fo $290M. Crazy!

The hotel housed the International Olympic committee in the 2010 Olympic Winter games in Vancouver. As well, its most famous guest was Howard Hughes, who stayed in the penthouse and rented several ofther floors for six months in Spring 1972.

Concorde Pacific has purchased the property with the expectation that zoning could change in the future to accommodate redevelopment.

September 2015

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March 4, 2015

What can a Vancouver real estate buyer do when the deposit has to be paid within one day after subject removal and the banks are closed?

Because the deposit is not paid in time the seller has the right to void the transaction.

There was nothing to prevent the buyer from paying the deposit before the conditions were removed, so the buyer has no reason to complain that he lost the deal.

If you are removing subjects on a specific date, the deposit should always be due no later than that date.

Also, make sure your condition removal date is not on a non-banking day.

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The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.