The Canadian economy expanded 0.1 per cent in August, following 0.3 per cent growth in July.

Growth in real GDP, as measured at the industry level, was led by gains in the manufacturing, mining and oil and gas sectors while retail trade and the finance sector were a drag on growth. 

The Canadian economy has posted three consecutive months of economic growth, putting worries of a deepening energy sector driven recession to rest.

Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at a relatively strong pace, likely in a range of 2.6 to 3 per cent. 


October 30/15

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Here’s some of what the mortgage market can expect from Mr. Trudeau’s new government:

  1. Higher bond yields: Balancing the budget is not a priority for the Liberals until 2019. Trudeau is expected to go on a spending spree and bond traders aren’t keen about it. It suggests a greater supply of government debt and potentially higher long-term yields to come. That, of course, could mean at least slightly higher fixed mortgage rates than we’d otherwise see.
  2. A More Hawkish Poloz: The odds just dropped for a cut in prime rate. More spending by Ottawa puts less pressure on governor Stephen Poloz to stimulate the economy with rate cuts. The implied probability of a rate hike by next October has almost doubled, from 8% yesterday to 15% as we speak.
  3. Wider RRSP Access: The Liberals say they’ll open access to the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan, particularly for homebuyers coping with significant life changes (divorce, death of a spouse, a sick or elderly family member, etc.). More access to down payment funds will prop up housing sales and home ownership slightly, and support home prices.
  4. More “Affordability”: The Liberal platform includes a review of housing policy in high-priced markets. The new government will “consider all policy tools that could keep home ownership within reach.” What that means, we’ll have to wait and see. It could definitely be positive for renters and income property investors, given the Liberals have promised to “direct CMHC…to provide financing to support the construction” of new rental housing.
  5. First-timer Support: Trudeau’s government will add more flexible programs for first-time homebuyers. This could mean any number of things, potentially even higher amortization limits for new buyers.
  6. New Blood at the DoF: The Liberals will be installing a new Minister of Finance, who has enormous power over housing regulation. Will he or she be as hands-off on mortgage policy as the outgoing Joe Oliver? We’re guessing not. We’ll likely have an answer by the time the Liberals release their first budget next spring.
  7. Read more

Oct 21/15

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The Bank of Canada announced today that it is keeping the overnight rate at 0.5 per cent, noting that inflation is evolving in line with the Bank's outlook, though total inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target range.  

Removing the impact of low oil prices and other temporary factors, the Bank judges that the underlying trend in inflation is currently 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.  The negative impact of low commodity prices is still being felt in the Canadian economy, prompting the Bank to trim its growth projection for 2015 to just 1 per cent, as well as revising down its forecast for real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 to 2 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. 

Growth in the Canadian economy appears to be firming in the second half of the year. Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at 2.5 per cent on an annual basis and core inflation continues to hover near the Bank's target of 2 per cent.

Moreover, the outlook for growth next year may be somewhat brighter than the Bank currently forecasts given the spending intentions of the new Canadian government.  If so, some of the burden on monetary policy will be lifted, making further rate cuts less likely, anticipating  the Bank will remain on hold through the rest of 2015 and much of 2016, with a chance of tighter monetary policy toward the end of next year. 


BCREA October 21/15

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Please visit our Open House at 935 NICOLA ST in Vancouver.

Open House on Saturday, October 24, 2015 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM

WELCOME HOME! Act fast for this distinctive and characteristic townhome in The Village complex. Seldom available! Opposite Barclay Heritage Park and boasting a 97 Walkscore in a quiet, peaceful and private location. A bright 2 bedroom home on 2 levels with east and west facing patios. Recently renovated with laminate floors, open kitchen with new cabinets and breakfast bar, new energy efficient stainless steel appliances, granite counters. Closet organizers and updated bathrooms with slate & mosaic floors. Living room features a beautiful Italian glass & marble gas fireplace that keeps your hydro bill very low. New roof, replumbed & resurfaced patios. Secured parking & large locker. PRICED TO SELL! OPEN HOUSE: Sat, Oct 24th, 1-3 PM.

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BC's strong economy added jobs in September, totalling 10,600 full time positions. The Province's unemployment rate is .3% The strong economy attracted new entrants into the labour force, from both inside and outside of the Province.

Year to date BC's unemployment is up 0.8% but has risen 1.7% over the last month.

 

October 9, 2015

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BC housing starts climbed 7% in August, rising to 27,331  units SAAR.  On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were down 2 per cent with single detached starts falling 5 per cent year-over year while multiple unit starts were flat compared to this time last year. Year-to-date, total housing starts in BC are up 10 per cent compared to 2014. 

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Greater Vancouver  were down 7% year-over-year in August as a result of slowing construction of multiple units, which fell 10 per cent year-over-year

 

october 8, 2015

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Please visit our Open House at 118 3250 BROADWAY W in Vancouver.

Open House on Saturday, October 3, 2015 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM

Bright south facing 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom condo in sought after Kitsilano, includes parking, full size storage locker. Fully repiped & rainscreened in 2011. Amazing location with a walk score of 95, UBC bus at your doorstep, plus large choice of restaurants, pubs, fruit & veggie stores. A short walk to Jericho Beach. Features laminate floors, granite countertops, cozy gas fireplace. Spacious master bedroom features ensuite & large walk-in closet. Washer/dryer is year old. Enjoy a glass of wine on your spacious, sunny balcony. Nothing to do but move in! Easy to show! OPEN HOUSE OCTOBER 3rd, SAT 3-4:30PM.

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